Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.033613 0.038270 0.043361 0.049347 0.056196 0.063795 0.072875
2025-02-02 0.026950 0.033428 0.041161 0.051091 0.063536 0.078655 0.098475
2025-02-09 0.023397 0.030743 0.040046 0.052734 0.069650 0.091522 0.122094
2025-02-16 0.020199 0.027807 0.037915 0.052390 0.072695 0.100323 0.141040
2025-02-23 0.017976 0.025762 0.036546 0.052660 0.076283 0.109894 0.161784
2025-03-02 0.015921 0.023644 0.034738 0.051952 0.078200 0.117065 0.179616
2025-03-09 0.014697 0.022552 0.034225 0.052979 0.082641 0.128220 0.204483
2025-03-16 0.013286 0.021002 0.032826 0.052437 0.084503 0.135481 0.223877
2025-03-23 0.012569 0.020440 0.032862 0.054101 0.089961 0.148867 0.254594
2025-03-30 0.011253 0.018773 0.030958 0.052373 0.089591 0.152567 0.269197
2025-04-06 0.010297 0.017602 0.029741 0.051642 0.090778 0.158912 0.288963
2025-04-13 0.009240 0.016155 0.027917 0.049665 0.089545 0.160845 0.300835
2025-04-20 0.008901 0.015943 0.028228 0.051546 0.095517 0.176421 0.340203
2025-04-27 0.008569 0.015714 0.028486 0.053361 0.101562 0.192780 0.383075
2025-05-04 0.008250 0.015473 0.028692 0.055079 0.107570 0.209637 0.428834
2025-05-11 0.007685 0.014716 0.027866 0.054720 0.109455 0.218600 0.459420
2025-05-18 0.007254 0.014174 0.027394 0.055002 0.112630 0.230423 0.497333
2025-05-25 0.006743 0.013431 0.026464 0.054261 0.113609 0.237794 0.526394
2025-06-01 0.006476 0.013150 0.026420 0.055337 0.118503 0.253869 0.576658
2025-06-08 0.006060 0.012529 0.025636 0.054769 0.119783 0.262249 0.610265
2025-06-15 0.005902 0.012429 0.025913 0.056510 0.126321 0.282877 0.675033
2025-06-22 0.005429 0.011622 0.024634 0.054702 0.124658 0.284778 0.694870
2025-06-29 0.005088 0.011069 0.023854 0.053937 0.125313 0.292069 0.728801